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Ben Max: It’s obvious, but: who actually gets supporters out to vote on Feb. Williams’ 2018 run and 2019 endorsements are likely to play a major role here, especially the groups activating their member lists.

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It’s not that most city residents were for HQ2, but if the anti-Amazon voters are split over 10 or 12 candidates, the voters who are disappointed that Amazon withdrew could go for Councilmember Eric Ulrich. If an outside independent expenditure group runs run-of-the-mill Republican ads as has been reported, that may actually drive up progressive turnout.

Whoever wins will likely win with a small margin, so every vote counts.

Lupe Todd-Medina: The biggest factor is going to be voter turnout – and who turns out.

Earlier this week, we asked readers to make their predictions.

In our entirely unscientific poll – which at least a few candidates linked to on Twitter – New York City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez was leading the pack as of Tuesday evening.

So I would still bet on Jumaane, but I would keep an eye on Ulrich.